I talked to a German citizen this week. About the state of the world but in particular what German society is like after the most recent knife attacks. There is too much to discuss, and too many factors involved, but the thing to look out for is the constituent state elections this weekend. There is a significant chance the far-right will come to power.
When I say “far-right” I actually mean what it meant 20 years ago.
Today, the term has been used and abused for so long to mean anybody who isn’t on board with what falls neatly within politically correct and postmodernist positions. As a result, the term “far-right” has become meaningless. Because if almost everything is far-right, nothing is.
By misusing this word on purpose for many years, it no longer has enough power to describe true far-right extremists. When they rise to power, there is no longer a label to accurately describe the dangers they pose. Too many people cried wolf for too long. When actual wolves show up now, a large portion of the public will a) not believe it anymore and b) not care anymore.
I’ve discussed this at length on Patreon and on the podcast but this was foreseen and foreseeable. It was also largely misunderstood, the true dynamics were ignored and principles were discarded. Because this time “it will be different.” I disagree. As a realist, my position is that human nature doesn’t fundamentally change. Hegel’s third law says that the pendulum swings from one extreme to the other until it settles in the middle. I don’t see a middle happening any time soon and here’s why.
It is impossible to list all the factors involved, so I’ll focus on the ones relevant to today:
- There was the pandemic. Several years of crazy chaos, suspension of constitutional rights, lockdowns, etc. People haven’t forgotten about that and the consequences of the policies governments enforced then are still felt today.
- Germany in particular and Europe in general are suffering economically. In part in the aftermath of the pandemic, but also significantly due to the Energiewende: closing down nuclear plants and going all in on renewable energy has left the country unable to sustain several major industries. As a result, massive corporations and multinationals are moving abroad or downsizing. Bankruptcies are also skyrocketing. As Germany is the economic engine of Europe, this doesn’t bode well for the rest of the EU…
- I had to do a book review of Lowest of the low way back in high school over 35 years ago. The book came out in the 1980s and describes the plight of immigrants, and how they face hardship and racism in Germany. The book could have been written about most EU countries. Let’s just say that integration didn’t really work out great back then.
- Some 15 years ago, then Chancellor Angela Merkel said multiculturalism had failed in Germany. Immigrants had to do more to integrate, learn the language, etc. In the UK and my own Belgium, the prime ministers said the same thing. Similar sentiments were in the rest of the EU.
- In 2015 during the Syrian refugee crisis, Merkel spoke the infamous words “Wir schaffen das.” Over a million refugees and economic migrants entered the EU in less than a year. Germany took in the biggest part. But Merkel (or any other political leader) had no plan to succeed where she had already admitted they failed in the past. Why would anybody then expect anything other than more failure? In the years that followed, predictably, many problems with massive immigration cropped up again. Keep that in mind as you read on.
- Many readers will get upset by reading the above. That can’t be helped. So let’s make things clear: xenophobia is part of the human condition, all across the globe. If you think otherwise, you haven’t traveled enough. I have. But for the doubters: according to politically correct reasoning, these Mexicans are racist toward Americans… In general, people don’t like a massive influx of “others”, regardless of who those others are. One of the dynamics involved is cultural diffusion. Denying this happens or pretending there are only positive changes that come with it is one of the reasons things are messed up right now.
- People will still be upset despite my explanation above. So let’s try a thought experiment: if somebody you consider far-right says you have to deport illegals, do you consider that an extreme point of view? Inhumane? Disgusting? OK. How about when a social democrat and the current Chancellor of Germany says it not once a few days ago, but last year he literally said “We must finally deport on a large scale.” Is he a far-fight racist now too? For some reason, there is hardly a peep, let alone outrage, when he says something a far-right politician or supporter, and average citizens are demonized for. See above re. the cheapening of words and below for the results that yields: an untenable double standard that wrecks societies.
- I won’t go into political correctness, postmodernism, DEI, and ESG anymore. I’m tired of doing so and my position is well known by now. We’ve had it for years and it wrecked society. As I predicted, this is the year it breaks down: Here, here, here, and many more. As a quick aside: if you believed these companies and their virtue signaling about their values: they lied. They never really cared. If they did, they wouldn’t so easily abandon them now the societal tide is turning. Hypocrites, the lot of them and you were foolish to believe them. The reason this matters: after years of wokeness, people are fed up with the gaslighting and being called an “-ist” or “-phobe” for the slightest perceived wrong or even making common sense statements. This becomes relevant below.
- The man responsible for the knife attack in Solingen was an asylum seeker who was supposed to be deported. He had been denied asylum and ordered to leave the country. When the police wanted to deport him, they couldn’t find him in the center he was staying. And that was it, nothing more was done. This is extremely common in Europe: illegals receive a paper that orders them to leave the territory and are released. If police put them on a commercial flight to deport them, they often kick up a storm and the captain (rightfully) refuses to take off unless they are taken off his plane. The alternative is charter planes or military transport. There never seem to be the budgets to pay for that… Now there is more going on, like legally binding accords and agreements needed with the home countries. But the issues there have seemingly been impossible to fundamentally fix for the last few decades. And now many people have had enough of the delays. Or of supremely useless responses like let’s ban knives.
For all the above and many more reasons (try using the German railroads…) A LOT of Germans are fed up. Faith in the institutions and media has eroded tremendously and keeps doing so. People are unhappy and don’t see things getting better, regardless of which traditional party they vote for: nothing gets fixed, the problems remain or get worse and they are ostracized for calling them out.
Then a popular figure (or figures) rises up.
It can be one from the far left, but in this case, it looks like it’ll come from the far right.
People don’t care anymore. They want solutions. They no longer want to be gaslit or told they are “-ists” and “-phobes” for disagreeing with the narrative that they’re being sold. One they see every day in their lives is a complete lie.
All the people?
No, as plenty of Germans and Europeans don’t constantly face these problems due to living in more upscale, remote or safer areas. But plenty of others do. And even among those who don’t, they travel or watch the news and social media.
The total number of angry people can be more than high enough to vote the far-right into power.
Yelling at these citizens that the far-right is evil won’t solve anything. Two reasons:
- The term has become useless. It has been cheapened by years of misuse and abuse and no longer convinces many.
- They don’t care anymore. They just want somebody, anybody, to fix things. Might as well give those far-right assholes a chance as all the others have failed miserably.
Will this happen for sure?
Nobody knows.
But if it doesn’t happen now, it is likely to happen in the near future. This year’s European elections have already clearly demonstrated the tide is turning to the right. It won’t take much to go all the way to the far right…
So what can be done?
The realist in me says: nothing, this will all just play out until the end.
If the far-right gains power, the establishment will cry foul, use repression, insult citizens, chastise them for voting the “wrong” way, etc. What they won’t do is see how their failed policies contributed to this result. Nor will they offer a mea culpa and then actually handle the issues these voters want to see fixed.
Impossible, you say?
Only days after the Solingen knife attack, Germany deported 28 Afghan criminals. Which they hadn’t done in three years.
The response by many Germans: Why didn’t you do it sooner? How many people had to die before you took action?
The response from the far-right: Vote for us and we’ll do it immediately.
To people who are fed up, that sounds mightily appealing…
But, you might say, Scholz is actually doing it now!
I agree, but he already promised it last year (see above) and knife assaults were already up by 10% in 2023, with 2024 on its way to be even higher. If he wanted to take the wind out of the sails of the far right, he should have acted massively and immediately after he promised so in Der Spiegel last year. Now, it reeks of opportunism and political recuperation.
For the benefit of the slow and ideologically captured:
I despise the far right just as much as the far left. Nothing I wrote above is an endorsement of them, on the contrary. The extremists are why we can’t have nice things and why history keeps on repeating. Not just in Germany, but in other countries things are going along similar dynamics.
What is the relevance of all the above to self-defense?
Imagine an increasing breakdown of law and order due to civil unrest. Social and criminal violence will skyrocket then. You really don’t want that to happen…
I’ve explained the dynamics as best I could. As stated, I also left out an enormous amount of relevant factors to avoid making this article even longer. My goal was to point out how the dynamics of the last few decades have led us to this point. How you can get upset about the rise of the far right, but then also look in the mirror and wonder if anything you said or did contributed to it, regardless of where on the political aisle you stand. That is an uncomfortable thing to do, but it is also the only path to progress and actually turning down the temperature on this whole thing.
Human nature and history suggest not nearly enough people are capable of this. And so the wheel keeps on turning.
To not leave you hanging, what can you do?
- Get your own house in order. Make sure you and your loved ones are OK during difficult times.
- If you want to be an activist and protest, by all means. But understand you might pay a heavy price for that.
- This too will pass. Once it kicks off, there will be difficult years, but eventually it will subside. Focus on the long term for you and yours.
Good luck.
P.S.: I know many DEI and ESG programs are going underground or changing names. I never said they were gone, only that they are breaking down.
