The economics are always the lead around here, this being a one-man economics rag, more or less.
So, four items for this morning’s pre-flight checklist.
#1 NFIB Small Business Outlook
Big companies like Apple and Tesla get the headlines almost daily. But the nation’s small business gives a sometimes very different take on things. Especially when there’s still some debate as to whether this fall could turn into a Biden career-ending recession.
“WASHINGTON, D.C. (Sept. 12, 2023) – NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.6 of a point in August to 91.3, the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices increased two points to a net 27% (seasonally adjusted), still at an inflationary level.
Key findings include:
- Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months deteriorated seven points from July to a net negative 37%, however, 24 percentage points better than last June’s reading of a net negative 61% but still at recession levels.
- Forty percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, down two points from July but remain historically high.
- The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher decreased two points from July to a net negative 14%.
Not that an economic debacle from the Free Lunch Administration is needed.
In the latest (Obama third term) riff, Slo Joe decided to do a deal with Iran and free up $6-billion. As detailed in The US moves to advance a prisoner swap deal with Iran and release $6 billion in frozen funds | AP News. Which proves (again and again) that when a War Party says they “won’t deal with terrorist demands” it’s clearly a lie, re-lie, and really really a lie.
There’s a World War going on. World War 3 – which we label the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars – is going on with Iran’s specific involvement and the stupidity of the administration giving money to Iran while headlines cross like ‘Azerbaijan has assured Iran it has no intention to attack Armenia’ – Tehran Times just boggles the thoughtful.
#2 NY Fed Consumer Note
The headline says it all: Households Less Optimistic about their Financial Situations. Another one of those “off-page factors” but very real in terms of policymaking for the Fed.
Conspicuously underplayed by the lamestream financial wreckess is the lookahead on inflation…
“Year-ahead commodity price expectations rose across the board in August, increasing by 0.4 percentage point for gas (to 4.9%), 0.1 percent point for food (to 5.3%), 0.8 percent point for the cost of medical care (to 9.2%), and 0.2 percentage point for the cost of college education (to 8.2%) and rent (to 9.2%).“
Again, we reiterate our belief that when you can’t even pay the debt on money you now owe, the unpaid balance carries to the following compounding interest period. Which is why the Fed raising rates any higher now will mean they are bidding up future inflation even higher.
Gradualism is attractive to people who don’t really know what they’re doing. But there are times, flying an airplane in heavy weather, or docking a boat in a serious crosswind or current, when failure to “put the wheel or yoke” HARD OVER is the only safe thing to do.
Thus, our view is the Fed squandered its chance to “put ‘er hard over” (and kill inflation) and will now – thanks to gradualism, timidity, political ineptitude, and fear-factors – wreck the economy.
#3 Wave 3 Down Odds Increasing
See: It’s like Rod Stewart said. “Every Picture tells a story, don’t it?”
A lot will depend on tomorrow’s C PI and Thursdays Retail Sales report which will scale forward expectations ahead of the Fed meeting next week.
#4 WW3 is Smoldering Along
Without NATO intervention, Ukraine is at serious risk of losing their fight (they picked by abusing Russian-speaking regions) with U.S. neocon cheering and the War Party throwing your income tax at it. Zelensky’s birthplace on fire: Russians razed Krivoy Rog – Ashes covered Ternopil – Fierce attack on Kiev – 20th arsenal destroyed. Our current estimate is that when all’s done either the whole world will have significant radiation readings OR the new eastern border of Ukraine will be the Dnieper River.
NATO is putting out fires, now. Because with war materiel landing on Romanian soil, there’s been some movement toward dragging NATO in since Romania is a NATO member. The message from NATO? “Not so fast…” ‘No risk’ that NATO member Romania will be dragged into war, senior alliance official says (stamfordadvocate.com). Because if NATO gets involved directly then the whole of Europe is in play.
For now, it’s all about Money. The Death Industry is a winner for countries without a clear economic path forward. On the brink of joining NATO, Sweden seeks to boost its defense spending by 28% | AP News. We continue wondering why the U.S. portion of the war cost is disproportionate. (crickets)
Word that Kim Jong-un arrives in Russia before expected meeting with Vladimir Putin sparked speculation by our consigliere: “I wonder if Putin will tell the NorKs when China will move on Taiwan so they can plan a surprise move on South Korea?” Our consigliere places odds of a China move at 50-percent this month. And if we lose a capital ship (like a carrier) over Taiwan, then he’s modeling a two-week lag and then North Korea would have a window to move South.
Pay attention to the Russian views of District of Corruption war promotion: Vladimir Putin on charges against Donald Trump: US political system ‘rotten’. Of course, he’d say that, but is he completely wrong?
Speaking of our “crack government” McCarthy to officially back impeachment inquiry into President Biden this week: report. The game in D.C. is always to “talk a good game” and just “run the clock.” Our consigliere’s view is even more grim than our own.
“George, why are you so sure there will even BE an election in 2024? When World Wars get rolling, they take on a life of their own and anything can happen. We haven’t had a war on American soil since 1812. We could lose Hawaii and Alaska before ’24 is done…”
Makes me feel positively like an Optimist.
Around the Ranch: Resolution of Dreams
Let’s take a break for some woo-woo.
“Alexa, what time is it?”
“It’s 12:50 AM.”
As you know, I have written a fair bit on Dreams and on Dying and how we are (likely) all “souls” that venture through the Universe having dandy adventures. With half a night still ahead, I decided to work on the “Resolution of Dreams” issue.
Which is?
We all have two lives going on. The one experienced in the waking state and the other in the dream realms when we sleep. To my odd way of thinking, it has been an ongoing curiosity to scientifically define the experiential differences between the two Realms (kingdoms) we inhabit.
I dozed off doing a mental comparison between the “graphics resolution” of the Waking world, versus the resolution of Sleeping worlds. As I was doing this, I began to wander through a checklist of other “input channels.”
Sure, I can remember many dream scenes well enough to paint them. Occasionally, there might be a taste. But the audio tracks in dreams are more “knowing” and less “auditory.” Which means things like (chest shaking) bass notes seem to be “missing” in Dream Realm music experiences.
Now I was onto something. Is there a chance that we are part of a progressing Universal intelligence that has lived (call it Gen 1) in Dream Realms and when we are awake, we are spending time in (and beta testing) a Gen 2 Realm?
If so – and the data might be there to support this – what was the main breakthrough at the code level which – conceptually – divided sleep from waking?
The answer seemed to be “Tactility.”
Consider the Soul-Realm interface. The sense of touch at many levels seems to be muted in dreams. But in the waking state, the gentlest of touches can be hugely impacting. Especially when it involves someone you love (like me and Elaine, right?). But also interacting with others. A left hook to the jaw. Hurts like hell IRL, but not in Dreams. A cat scratch hurts, but those kinds of injuries/experiences are just, well, missing something in Sleep Realms.
Is evolving into a Waking World how the soul-seeds of intelligence tunnel the Universe? I was continuing this interesting “test-fitting” of concepts when suddenly, Elaine was shaking me…
“George, why did the TV just come on?”
“uh…wha...I didn’t turn it on. Alexa, what time is it?”
“The time is 4:06 AM.”
Wandering out to the living room, 65-inches of UHD seemed meaningful, but I wasn’t sure how, exactly.
But even now, there’s no alarm set for the TV to come on – and we don’t use any of the sleep or wake functions on it. Hmm. Why would it come on all by it self? Remember, our closest neighbor is almost a quarter mile away..
Just seemed an odd coincidence to be dreaming about the resolution of dreams and the Gen 2 tactility beta reality and having the UHD pop on due to some invisible influence.
I was left shaking my head. “Well, I’ll be damned.”
Maybe we all will be. Maybe waking is still the beta release. Are we going to make RC-1 (release candidate version of the code)? Would that mean the succession of religious prophets over history have been acting in a software tutoring role?
Guess we all click out to what’s next, eventually. Can I beta RC-2 next time around? This version’s still pretty “buggy.” We aren’t ready for prime time.
Write when you get rich or you awaken on the next level up from here,
George@Ure.net
