Gerald Epstein Prognostication is a fool’s errand…maybe that’s why we economists like to do so much of it, especially this time of year. John Maynard Keynes was no fool, but even he couldn’t help making forecasts. Keynes famously predicted, for example, that over time there would be such abundance of capital that investments would yield close to 0{660353129f8d892044c993645a1c75194301fec6786a7f617c15adde0b0011e9}, bringing about the “euthanasia of the rentier.” Though interest rates are now quite low, the rentiers are still, unfortunately, going strong. Keynes’ willingness to engage in such forecasts is all the more interesting because, better than most economists – then and now — Keynes understood the pitfalls of economic prediction. As emphasized by my colleague James Crotty, among others, central to Keynes’…
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